For the Commercial Health Insurers, Winter Is Coming

Fans of HBO's hit fantasy TV series Game of Thrones will recognize the adage. 

In the show, the continent of Westeros has had a long hot summer of breasts, butts and beheadings. Now, it's not only getting colder, but there have been sightings in the North of blue-eyed freeze-dried warrior zombies. Crops are failing, the northern tribes are fleeing and the crows are looking more sinister by the minute. The only thing that separates civilization from catastrophe is The Wall.  That's made of a lot of ice and it is guarded by the Night's Watch.  The Watch is made up of mostly unsavory criminal types who have been given the choices of decapitation or taking The Oath.  Think of them as the Fence Frozen Legion.  Cue camera, raise swords... action!

Naturally, the Population Health Blog is enjoying every minute of it, and so is, inexplicably, the PHB Spouse.  We're both gained valuable insights.  While the PHB ponders her observation that men are untrustworthy swine, it has more constructively responded that Game of Thrones has many lessons that speak to the health insurance market.

To wit:

The Night's Watch may be made up of villains, but they're our villains and they're performing a valuable function.  Commercial health insurers likewise have their knaves, but for years they have been pooling risk and paying claims. 

Unfortunately, times are changing. While we've had a lusty summer of low cost inflation and innovation, Accountable Care Organizations are not as successful as hoped, insurer networks have gone skinny, out-of-pocket expenses are climbing and tax bills are coming due.  While we thought the undead "Medicare for All" was just an unpleasant memory, there have been sightings here and here. 

Will the Night's Watch of commercial insurers hold the wall?  Cue camera, raise swords.... action!

Image from Wikipedia