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Funny Stories: HOW TO LIVE?

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<b><span style="font-family: "times"; line-height: 99%;">HOW TO LIVE?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; line-height: 96%;">"Darling," said the young man to
his new bride. </span></div>

Funny Stories: HOW TO LIVE?

HOW TO LIVE? "Darling," said the young man to his new bride.

5:06:00 PM

Funny Stories: THE BUM …

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<b><span style="font-family: "times"; line-height: 99%;">THE BUM …</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; line-height: 97%;">A bum approaches a well dressed gentleman on
the street. "Hey, Buddy, can you spare two dollars?" The well-dressed
gentleman responds, "You are not going to spend in on liquor are
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Funny Stories: THE BUM …

THE BUM … A bum approaches a well dressed gentleman on the street. "Hey, Buddy, can you spare two dollars?" The well-dresse...

4:48:00 PM

If at first you don't succeed...

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKUKDhrpXf4-3gNhqdw-RJdPSMGq2upCgi2lMYK0RP4soTg8NSG8lubgIuCHdxmmbyq7XdSjxMZscsYGHkIGyQlaPba-SmumJq6JOAotfCj-y-O6OhCe4-XxybiBIWKuYMYwt3Iw67wQr3/s1600/Significus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKUKDhrpXf4-3gNhqdw-RJdPSMGq2upCgi2lMYK0RP4soTg8NSG8lubgIuCHdxmmbyq7XdSjxMZscsYGHkIGyQlaPba-SmumJq6JOAotfCj-y-O6OhCe4-XxybiBIWKuYMYwt3Iw67wQr3/s200/Significus.jpg" width="155"></a>If only post hoc analyses <u>always</u> brought out the inner skeptic in us all! Or came with red flashing lights instead of just a little token "caution" sentence buried somewhere. </div>
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Post hoc analysis is when researchers go looking for patterns in data. (Post hoc is Latin for "after this.") Testing for statistically significant associations is not by itself a way to sort out the true from the false. (More about that here.) Still, many treat it as though it is - especially when they haven't been able to find a "significant" association, and turn to the bathwater to look for unexpected babies.</div>

If at first you don't succeed...

If only post hoc analyses always brought out the inner skeptic in us all! Or came with red flashing lights instead of just a little toke...

9:55:00 PM

What's so good about "early," anyway?

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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Early." It's one of those words like "new" and "fast," isn't it? As though they are inherently good, and their opposites - "late," "old" and "slow" - are somehow bad.</span></div>
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Believing in the value and virtue of being an early bird has deep roots in our cultural consciousness. It goes back at least as far as ancient Athens. Aristotle's treatise on household economics said that early rising was both virtuous and beneficial: "It is likewise well to rise before daybreak; for this contributes to health, wealth and wisdom."</div></span>

What's so good about "early," anyway?

"Early." It's one of those words like "new" and "fast," isn't it? As though they are inherently g...

8:13:00 PM

Does it work? Beware of the too-simple answer

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje0eyRCTlLdiJLHDtVnlBbBU45-7JKl92llkUIl4NUqfL7GQXQosP7zsG1IzY_0zjr-3jnD7ksUNJHUU_ElgLgtGYbNpS-ryn4hhDqVU8hnhlKyOKBEg3IxrMUxHId3h6X8UltFP5sqYbO/s1600/Does_it_work.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje0eyRCTlLdiJLHDtVnlBbBU45-7JKl92llkUIl4NUqfL7GQXQosP7zsG1IzY_0zjr-3jnD7ksUNJHUU_ElgLgtGYbNpS-ryn4hhDqVU8hnhlKyOKBEg3IxrMUxHId3h6X8UltFP5sqYbO/s200/Does_it_work.jpg" width="140"></a><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Leonard is so lucky! He's just asked a very complicated question and he's not getting an over-confident and misleading answer. Granted, he was likely hoping for an easier one! But let's dive into it.</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>"Does": that auxiliary verb packs a punch. How <b>do</b> we know whether something does or doesn't work?   It would be great if that were simple, but unfortunately it's not.</i></span></span></div>

Does it work? Beware of the too-simple answer

Leonard is so lucky! He's just asked a very complicated question and he's not getting an over-confident and misleading answer...

7:39:00 PM

Alleged effects include howling

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw-yagVzpCkcIhKRQL9DQeT50tRgMB-ztAaeg-VmQOJmmX5KduCc_vXQWz0OWVYVAr9QqzBCm1yz0gGxDa4MdOsVYpGVhykmskgjaPQ48QJcJVRLCZ6qjZQsmhuh46epvamg_OwV8ImRYq/s1600/Cause-and-effect.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw-yagVzpCkcIhKRQL9DQeT50tRgMB-ztAaeg-VmQOJmmX5KduCc_vXQWz0OWVYVAr9QqzBCm1yz0gGxDa4MdOsVYpGVhykmskgjaPQ48QJcJVRLCZ6qjZQsmhuh46epvamg_OwV8ImRYq/s200/Cause-and-effect.jpg" width="170"></a><i><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">When dogs howl at night, it's not the full moon that sets them off. Dogs are communicating for all sorts of reasons. We're just not all that good at understanding what they're saying.</span></i></div>
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<i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We make so many mistakes about attributing cause and effect for so many reasons, that it's almost surprising we get it right as often as we do. But all those mistaken beliefs we realize we have, don't seem to teach us a lesson. </i><i style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><i>Pretty soon after catching ourselves out, we're at it again, taking mental shortcuts, being cognitive misers.</i></span></i></div>
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Alleged effects include howling

When dogs howl at night, it's not the full moon that sets them off. Dogs are communicating for all sorts of reasons. We're just...

10:32:00 PM

Goldilocks and the three reviews

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs5EtKLaH3psWvPhV0jNb7p2VJLDs4igON_PsdD0sRaMTV6IcDDAO8Fs15LJ2EiTDcosjQaFySEkSJ5ahJi-NxPYOyRT68ObPQFNPZg-ZOENy3xV1mXhXzQp4iRxe07mrnp4wvYIXvgc5m/s1600/Goldilocks-3-reviews-small.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs5EtKLaH3psWvPhV0jNb7p2VJLDs4igON_PsdD0sRaMTV6IcDDAO8Fs15LJ2EiTDcosjQaFySEkSJ5ahJi-NxPYOyRT68ObPQFNPZg-ZOENy3xV1mXhXzQp4iRxe07mrnp4wvYIXvgc5m/s200/Goldilocks-3-reviews-small.jpg" width="87"></a><i>Goldilocks is right: that review is FAR too complicated. The methods section alone is 652 pages long! Which wouldn't be too bad, if it weren't that it is a few years out of date. It took so long to do this review and go through rigorous enough quality review, it was already out of date the day it was released. Something that happens often enough to be rather disheartening.</i></div>

Goldilocks and the three reviews

Goldilocks is right: that review is FAR too complicated. The methods section alone is 652 pages long! Which wouldn't be too bad...

4:38:00 PM

Studies of cave paintings have shown....

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-BB7Z4xlDcTZW2qOu5U0te8IZ4PWqIihYQVO1NFUs-Oo9MtIGCS1WBMKmxOPLsRInq98Ju09mkIDAffZJ6BdiYoDZcJzFQKQbsxvDOFIkDeGeUmqwQHPdAShXgxyXyRAkFeh3w9zDEIrV/s1600/Little-Ogg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-BB7Z4xlDcTZW2qOu5U0te8IZ4PWqIihYQVO1NFUs-Oo9MtIGCS1WBMKmxOPLsRInq98Ju09mkIDAffZJ6BdiYoDZcJzFQKQbsxvDOFIkDeGeUmqwQHPdAShXgxyXyRAkFeh3w9zDEIrV/s200/Little-Ogg.jpg" width="200"></a><i>The mammoth has a good point. Ogg's father is making a classic error of logic. Not having found proof that something really happens, is not the same as having definitive proof that this thing cannot possibly happen.</i></div>
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<i>Ogg's family doesn't have the benefit of Aristotle's explanation of deductive reasoning. But even two thousand years after Aristotle got started, we still often fall into this trap.</i></div>

Studies of cave paintings have shown....

The mammoth has a good point. Ogg's father is making a classic error of logic. Not having found proof that something really happe...

9:35:00 PM

Women and children overboard

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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's the Catch-22 of clinical trials: to protect pregnant women and children from the risks of untested drugs....we don't test drugs adequately for them.</span></i></div>
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<i>In the last few decades, we've been more concerned about the harms of research than of inadequately tested treatments for everyone, in fact. But for "vulnerable populations," like pregnant women and children, the default was to exclude them.</i></div>
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Women and children overboard

It's the Catch-22 of clinical trials: to protect pregnant women and children from the risks of untested drugs....we don't test ...

6:47:00 AM

Look, Ma - straight A's!

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<i>Unfortunately, little Suzy isn't the only one falling for the temptation to dismiss or explain away inconvenient performance data. Healthcare is riddled with this, as people pick and choose studies that are easy to find or that prove their points.</i><br>
<i><br></i><i>In fact, most reviews of healthcare evidence don't go through the painstaking processes needed to systematically minimize bias and show a fair picture. You can read more about how it's done thoroughly in this explanation of systematic reviews at PubMed Health.</i><br>

Look, Ma - straight A's!

Unfortunately, little Suzy isn't the only one falling for the temptation to dismiss or explain away inconvenient performance dat...

2:22:00 AM

Don't worry ... it's just a standard deviation

Don't worry ... it's just a standard deviation

Of course, every time Cynthia and Gregory make the 8-block downtown trip to the Stinsons, it's going to take a different amount of ti...

6:57:00 PM

Every move you make....Are you watching you?

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<em><em><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Monitoring....There's something about getting something into numbers and targets that just makes it seem to be so controllable, isn't there? And many people - including many doctors - just love gadgets and measuring things. No wonder there is so much monitoring in health and fitness.</span></em></em></div>
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Every move you make....Are you watching you?

Monitoring....There's something about getting something into numbers and targets that just makes it seem to be so controllable, isn...

4:23:00 AM

Nervously approaching significance

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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i>We're deluged with claims that we should do this, that or the other thing because some study has a "statistically significant" result. But don't let this particular use of the word "significant" trip you up: when it's paired with "statistically", it doesn't </i>mean it's necessarily important. Nor is it a magic number that means that something has been proven to work (or not to work).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The p value on its own really tells you very little. It is one way of trying to measure how much impact the play of chance has on a result - whether the result is more or less likely to be "signal" than "noise." If a study sample is very small, only a very big difference might reach that level, while it is far easier in a bigger study.</span></div>
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On its own, statistical significance is not a way to prove the "truth" of a claim or hypothesis. What's more, you don't even need the p value, because there are other statistical techniques that tell you everything the p value can tell you, and more useful things besides.</div>
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But here's how to understand the numbers you'll often see when people use a p value. They are wanting to estimate the likelihood of getting a similar result if their hypothesis is right, by testing the "null hypothesis" (that there is no difference). Testing the null hypothesis. They are likely to arbitrarily set the level of statistical significance of 95%. That means that it would be likely to be a result outside an estimated range less than 5% of the time (shown by <0.05).</div>
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Whether that's important or not depends on whether the range is big or small and other things. What's more, the finding itself can be a fluke. That's why you can't conclude too much based on that alone.</div>
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You can read more about statistical significance in detail over here in my Scientific American blog, Absolutely Maybe - and in Data Bingo! Oh no! and Does it work? here at Statistically Funny. </div>
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Always keep in mind that a statistically significant result is not necessarily significant in the sense of "important". A sliver of a difference could reach statistical significance if a study is big enough. For example, if one group of people sleeps a tiny bit longer on average a night than another group of people, that could be statistically significant. But it wouldn't be enough for one group of people to feel more rested than the other.</div>
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This is why people will often say something was statistically significant, but clinically unimportant, or not clinically significant. Clinical significance is a value judgment, often implying a difference that would change the decision that a clinician or patient would make. Others speak of a minimal clinically important difference (MCID or MID). That can mean they are talking about the minimum difference a patient could detect - but there is a lot of confusion around these terms.</div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Researchers and medical journals are more likely to trumpet "statistically significant" trial results to get attention from doctors and journalists, for example. Those medical journal articles are a key part of marketing pharmaceuticals, too. Selling copies of articles to drug companies is a major part of the business of many (but not all) medical journals. </span></div>
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And while I'm on the subject of medical journals, I need to declare my own relationship with one I've long admired: PLOS Medicine - an international open access journal. As well as being proud to have published there, I'm delighted to have recently joined their Editorial Board.</div>
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(This post was revised following Bruce Scott's comment below.)</div>
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<b><span style="color: red;">Funny, Story, </span></b></div>
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Nervously approaching significance

We're deluged with claims that we should do this, that or the other thing because some study has a "statistically significant...

4:38:00 AM

You will meet too much false precision

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrO7IPiA3put9-bUB3SC1qeWNsXxSYLpmD_GMWNhARi90NJnZVZ6SID4NJ4lTHqz4uCotet2EiNuBL-3a0oPwG9DV-cZAsTN7-Ig66-rhHgvGJcBHGfAFWd0pI3LwXD8Kl_jgGA2b6NF6/s1600/Jacinta.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrO7IPiA3put9-bUB3SC1qeWNsXxSYLpmD_GMWNhARi90NJnZVZ6SID4NJ4lTHqz4uCotet2EiNuBL-3a0oPwG9DV-cZAsTN7-Ig66-rhHgvGJcBHGfAFWd0pI3LwXD8Kl_jgGA2b6NF6/s200/Jacinta.jpg" width="120"></a><i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Precise numbers and claims - as though there is no margin for error - are all around us. When someone tells you that 54.3% of people with some disease will have a particular outcome, they're basically predicting the future of all groups of people based on what happened to another group of people in the past. Well, what are the chances of that, eh? </span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If our fortune teller was quoting the result of a study here, it could be written like this:  67.5% (95% CI: 62%-73%). The CI stands for "confidence interval" and it's a test of the reliability of data. It's showing us that 95 times out of 100, similar data sets to which the statistical test was applied would show a result somewhere between 62% and 73%.</span></i></div>
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You will meet too much false precision

Precise numbers and claims - as though there is no margin for error - are all around us. When someone tells you that 54.3% of people wi...

4:52:00 PM

President Obama ...

President Obama ...

Red Room - White house

9:17:00 PM

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